Turkey's Nuclear Future by Sinan Ülgen & George Perkovich

Author:Sinan Ülgen & George Perkovich [Ülgen, Sinan & Perkovich, George]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780870034169
Amazon: B00US95MDS
Barnesnoble: B00US95MDS
Goodreads: 25952834
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Published: 2015-03-20T00:00:00+00:00

INTELLIGENCE DEMANDS: TURKEY SEEKS GREATER INDEPENDENCE

As part of this shift, Turkey is developing greater intelligence, satellite, and reconnaissance capabilities. These systems are intended to supply targeting information for Turkey’s planned missile systems and, critically, provide Ankara with more independence from U.S.-supplied intelligence. Turkey intends to coproduce and launch up to 16 satellites by 2023—the centennial of the founding of the Turkish Republic. The military satellites will be outfitted with systems for reconnaissance and communications. Moreover, one is expected to include infrared sensors for ballistic missile launch detection.28

To support these plans, Ankara announced plans to develop an independent satellite launch capability.29 In February 2012, the head of TÜBİTAK SAGE announced that Turkey had an ambitious plan to build a ballistic missile with a 2,500 kilometer range within two years.30 Shortly after the missile announcement, the defense procurement agency also announced that it would begin work on a satellite launch vehicle31 and construct a satellite launch pad to support Turkey’s ambitious plans for space.32 The plan for both systems remains opaque, and little information has been released about the status of either program. As a result, it is unclear if the satellite launch vehicle is intended to serve as the design platform for the ballistic missile, or vice versa.

Ankara has also indicated that it intends to use its satellite launch vehicle and its future satellite industry to help establish Turkey as a major exporter of space-related technology. Thus, as with other military programs, the government is eager to use the technology to enhance the Turkish economy. Yet, as with the missile defense plan, Ankara is unlikely to be able to realize its very ambitious goals in the time frame allotted. While Turkey is working with European and Japanese suppliers for the development of satellites, it is unlikely that Ankara will be able to successfully develop and test a rocket capable of placing satellites in orbit within two years.

As for the military use of ballistic missiles, the armed forces and civilian leadership have not indicated why they would need a ballistic missile with a range of 2,500 kilometers or what role the missile would play in Turkey’s defense policy. However, other states that employ conventional ballistic missiles are known to use them to target command-and-control sites, large military bases, and ships at sea.

Ankara intends to network its space-based systems with its recently procured airborne warning and control system surveillance planes and the Anka drone using a locally developed software system dubbed Herikks, or Skywatcher. The systems are designed to work in concert to increase Turkish intelligence capabilities. In the past, Ankara has used its current fleet of drones to provide targeting information for field artillery units and to direct F-16 airstrikes. Thus, it is likely that once these systems come online, Turkey will use drone intelligence for similar operations, as well as for its cruise missiles.

The Anka is part of a larger effort to acquire greater precision strike capabilities. Ankara intends to pair the Anka with Roketsan’s 8 kilometer range Mızrak-U anti-tank missile.

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